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The Better Cambodia > Blog > Editorial > Editors Pick > Mixed Signals From Thailand Deepen Uncertainty Over Cambodia–Thailand Ceasefire
EditorialEditors PickFeatured

Mixed Signals From Thailand Deepen Uncertainty Over Cambodia–Thailand Ceasefire

Surya Narayan
Last updated: December 15, 2025 9:25 am
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Surya Narayan
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Published: December 15, 2025
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Over the past several days, one thing has become clear along the Cambodia–Thailand border: no one is speaking with one voice.

As clashes flared again in early December, statements coming out of Thailand have pointed in different directions. Political leaders have made one set of statements, military officials have made different ones, and foreign partners have expressed entirely separate views. For civilians, diplomats and regional observers, it has become increasingly difficult to say whether a ceasefire still exists, is being discussed, or is quietly falling apart.

Cambodian officials say their position has not changed. Phnom Penh has continued to state that Cambodia is respecting existing ceasefire understandings and remains willing to engage in talks. Privately, however, officials acknowledge that Thailand’s shifting messages have made it harder to stabilise the situation, even as casualties rise and the economic impact widens on both sides of the border.

The toll on civilians has continued to mount.

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According to reporting by the Phnom Penh Post and Cambodianess, at least 12 Cambodian civilians have been killed since fighting intensified earlier this month. Seventy-four others were injured. One of those killed was an infant, a detail that has deeply unsettled the public and sharpened fears for families living near the frontier.

Humanitarian groups cited in the same reports estimate that more than 400,000 people have fled their homes, most of them from northwestern border districts. Many left after days of shelling and air strikes made it impossible to remain.

Thai authorities have also acknowledged that a civilian was killed during the fighting, an admission that underlined that the violence has not been confined to one side.

In Cambodia, schools and markets have shut in several provinces, while health services have been disrupted. Across the border, communities in eastern Thailand have faced movement restrictions and a slowdown in local economic activity.

Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defence says Thai military operations, including heavy artillery fire and fighter jet activity, crossed into Cambodian territory. The ministry says Cambodian forces responded defensively, with the stated aim of protecting civilians and defending national sovereignty.

Allegations in some Thai media that Cambodian forces struck civilian areas have been rejected by Cambodian officials, who describe the claims as false and unhelpful at a time when tensions need to be reduced rather than inflamed.

Cambodian leaders have repeatedly said the country has no interest in war. Officials continue to point to dialogue, international law and ASEAN mechanisms as the only viable path forward, insisting that Cambodia has honoured ceasefire commitments even as incidents continued.

Confusion deepened on December 13 after former U.S. President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that he had spoken with leaders in both Phnom Penh and Bangkok and that they had agreed to stop fighting. Trump also warned publicly that Washington could raise tariffs on both countries if hostilities continued, according to reports carried by the Khmer Times.

The remarks quickly circulated internationally.

But within hours, senior Thai officials appeared to contradict that account. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul told reporters there were no ceasefire negotiations underway and said it was not yet the right moment for such talks. Khaosod English reported that Anutin questioned whether any ceasefire discussions had taken place at all.

The sharply different versions prompted debate inside Thailand. Political commentators openly questioned how two such conflicting narratives could emerge. One Thai academic warned that the lack of consistency risked undermining Thailand’s standing with regional partners, including Cambodia.

Cambodian officials chose not to engage publicly in the dispute. Instead, they reiterated that Cambodia remains committed to existing ceasefire arrangements and is open to any proposal that genuinely reduces violence and protects civilians.

Uncertainty spread further when border movement became an issue.

Thai officials accused Cambodia of preventing Thai nationals from returning home by closing land crossings. Cambodia’s Senate President Hun Sen responded publicly, saying Cambodia had not blocked anyone from leaving Thailand.

He said only land crossings in active conflict zones had been temporarily closed for safety reasons, while international flights through Phnom Penh and Siem Reap continued as normal. Thai citizens, he said, were free to return home by air.

Cambodian authorities described the measures as temporary and precautionary. Cambodianess reported that the clarification helped calm immediate tensions, although confusion continued to circulate in parts of Thai media and on social platforms.

The episode has drawn attention to deeper coordination issues within Thailand’s leadership. Positions taken by the prime minister’s office, the foreign ministry and the military have not always aligned, particularly on ceasefire talks, civilian movement and foreign mediation.

In a widely read article, Khaosod English asked whether Thai leaders were miscommunicating with foreign counterparts or failing to coordinate internally.

Cambodian analysts say the mixed messaging has made it harder to reassure civilians, investors and regional partners at a time when stability matters most.

Economic effects are already visible.

Border trade between Cambodia and Thailand supports tens of thousands of livelihoods. Temporary closures have disrupted the flow of Cambodian agricultural exports and Thai consumer goods, forcing key border markets to shut.

Tourism has also taken a hit. Visitor numbers have fallen sharply in border provinces and nearby cultural destinations. Hoteliers and transport operators on both sides report cancellations and lost income.

Economists quoted in Cambodian media warn that prolonged uncertainty could weaken investor confidence, particularly as both countries seek to present themselves as dependable manufacturing and logistics hubs within ASEAN.

Regional partners have urged restraint and clearer communication. Cambodian leaders have welcomed regional engagement and stressed that transparency is essential to prevent further escalation.

Cambodia has reiterated that it is ready to work with Thailand through bilateral channels, ASEAN frameworks and international legal mechanisms to reach a sustainable and peaceful solution.

Fighting has continued in multiple locations, and uncertainty remains. Cambodian officials say clarity must come first. Without it, trust cannot be rebuilt, civilians remain at risk, and efforts to restore stability along the border will continue to falter.

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BySurya Narayan
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Founder at The Better Cambodia | Communication Advisor to the Minister attached to the Prime Minister of Cambodia | Marketing Director at True North Lean
Previous Article Cambodia–Thailand Border Sees Renewed Clashes Despite Ceasefire Push
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