The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has projected that world rice production will reach an all-time high of 556.4 million tonnes (milled basis) during the 2025–26 season, marking a 1.2 percent increase from the previous year. The latest figure, released on Friday, represents an upward revision of one million tonnes from FAO’s September forecast.
India’s Gains Offset Pakistan’s Losses
While production estimates for Pakistan were cut by 0.6 million tonnes following severe floods in Punjab, the country’s main rice-producing province, this shortfall was more than compensated by higher output expectations in India. The FAO said India’s production forecast rose by 1.6 million tonnes thanks to a strong pace of Kharif crop plantings, despite challenges from deficient rains in eastern and northeastern regions and floods in the northwest.
Rice Utilisation and Stocks at Historic Peaks
Global rice utilisation is forecast to reach a record 550.8 million tonnes in 2025–26, up 2.0 percent from the previous year and broadly in line with earlier projections. FAO also noted that world rice reserves could climb to an all-time high by the end of the season, supported by growing stockpiles across both exporting and importing nations.
Trade to Dip Slightly as Demand Eases
For the calendar year, global rice trade is projected at 60.1 million tonnes, down from the revised 61.2 million tonnes in 2024 — a 1.8 percent annual decline. According to FAO, this reduction is primarily demand-driven, as strong domestic harvests and large purchases made earlier in 2025 are likely to curb import needs in Asia and reduce African buying volumes.
Rice Prices Ease Marginally in September
In a separate update, the FAO reported that its All Rice Price Index fell by 0.5 percent in September compared with August. The decline was attributed to reduced purchase orders from the Philippines and African buyers, as local supplies improved.
Overall, the FAO said that while global trade may soften, record-high output and ample reserves underline the resilience of the world rice market heading into the 2025–26 season.
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